A good beginning is half done.
Top 10 Financial Reasons Blessings This Year
Nov 28th
provided by 
Yep, it’s been a tough year. There’s still much to lament, such as decades-high unemployment, rising budget deficits and shaky financial institutions, but considering the abyss we were staring squarely into at this time last year, we’ve also come a long way and made great strides toward a healthier economy. So, as we enter the traditional Thanksgiving period, let’s take a few moments to give thanks for the modest financial gifts we’ve received this year – and maybe more importantly, give thanks that in many cases, our worst financial fears failed to materialize.
1. Major Stock Indexes Rise
Good tidings! Major stock indexes are up 60% since their March lows. The rebound in our equity markets has been critical on several fronts. First, it has helped stem the losses seen in retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. These retirement accounts are increasingly the No.1 funding vehicle for retirees, so recouping any losses here is a big help, especially to the baby boomer demographic.
There’s also a confidence issue at play, and our stock markets – for better or worse – are a de facto barometer, an economic "feel-good" factor. Fortunately, stock markets look forward, not back. Right now, they’re telling us they anticipate better times down the road.
2. GDP Growth Returns
Gross domestic product growth is the engine that makes everything go in our economy. GDP growth leads to stock market growth contributes to job and wage growth, and increases tax revenues for state and local governments to help balance their budgets. We obviously need all of these things, and the GDP growth of 3.5% in the third quarter was a good start.
We still need consistent GDP growth over several quarters to claim economic victory, and we need it to be more organic, not artificially spurred by government stimulus and one-time fiscal measures. As we look forward to 2010, this will be the biggest catalyst to getting us out of this recession and bringing down our nosebleed unemployment level.
3. Banks Repay Their TARP Loans
Ten of the banks that received Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds were allowed to repay $68 billion to taxpayers in June, and most of the major recipients have committed to fully repaying their TARP loans over the next 24 months. Also, as the stock prices of major banks rise, the chances of the government earning a good return on its TARP loans and direct investments only increases.
Even the much-maligned auto makers are starting to make good on their promises to pay. General Motors even announced that it would start repaying its $15+ billion in federal loans.
4. Home Prices Are Stabilizing
While home prices are still down 30% from their peak, prices in many geographic areas ticked upward in August, September and October according to the benchmark Case-Shiller Index.
If home prices can stabilize and even (gasp!) begin to rise in 2010, the hundreds of billions in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) can begin to improve the balance sheets of our battered financial institutions rather than deteriorate them, as has happened for the past two years. There’s still much progress that needs to be made, however, as mortgage delinquencies are still on the rise, and the threat of higher interest rates looms on the horizon. But hey, it could be worse – a lot worse.
5. First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Is Extended
The $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers was scheduled to end on December 1, but those who didn’t get on board in time have plenty of reason to be grateful. President Obama recently extended the credit until June 2010 in an effort to help to spur the housing market further. It was a smart move by Congress, as new housing starts remain at multi-decade lows, and inventory levels are still high across the housing market. The tax credit was also expanded to include income levels of up to $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for joint filers.
6. Corporate Profitability Is Getting Stronger
Profit margins have been strong at corporations over the past few quarters as inventories have been depleted and costs wrung out of business models. We still need to see more demand in the form of revenue growth, but stabilization and earnings per share (EPS) growth is good and companies should come out of this whole mess stronger, smarter and looking to hire if conditions continue to improve. Higher EPS numbers also mean more tax revenues, which are sorely needed.
7. The Rest of the World Is Resilient and Growing
Another good sign: Many foreign markets are doing quite well. GDP growth in China and India is tracking above 7% for the year, Brazil is growing and will begin its mega infrastructure roll-out to prepare for the Olympics in 2016, and smaller emerging economies in South America and Asia are holding steady and/or growing.
The internal, domestic economic strength of these foreign markets will help U.S. exporters to sell more goods, which represent over half the earnings of S&P 500 companies.
8. Inflation Is at Bay
Inflation has yet to appear, which is keeping interest rates low. This is helping the U.S., as it must borrow heavily to fund its growing budget deficits. Most economists do agree that inflation is inevitable down the road given all the money being sloshed around Washington and Wall Street, but there seems to be enough slack in the economy that we may have a few more quarters before inflation creeps up on us. By then, hopefully the economy is on better footing, which will allow the Federal Reserve to raise rates slowly, without stifling the recovery.
9. Regulatory Scrutiny Has Increased
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been near the top of a long list of entities that deserve a good finger-wagging for errors of submission or omission leading up to the financial crisis. But new measures are being put into place to protect investors from fraud and negligence by their financial advisors and corporate CEOs.
Whether the SEC is up to the task remains to be seen, but you can bet that they are embarrassed and bruised, and will be on the warpath to find the next problem before it blows up in their face. Any increased diligence by the SEC, or by groups like the credit ratings agencies (who are also quite red in the face) can only help investors in 2010 and beyond.
10. We’re Still Standing!
Last year at this time, many wondered if our financial system would even survive at all. It did (thank goodness), and that may be the best blessing of all.
8 Investing Lessons From John Paulson
Nov 23rd
Even as the financial system collapsed last year, and millions of investors lost billions of dollars, one unlikely investor was racking up historic profits: John Paulson, a hedge-fund manager in New York.
His firm made $20 billion between 2007 and early 2009 by betting against the housing market and big financial companies. Mr. Paulson’s personal cut would amount to nearly $4 billion, or more than $10 million a day. That was more than the 2007 earnings of J.K. Rowling, Oprah Winfrey and Tiger Woods combined.
How did he do it? Believing that a housing-market collapse was coming, Mr. Paulson spent over $1 billion in 2006 to buy insurance on what he then saw as risky mortgage investments. When the housing market cracked and the mortgages tumbled, the value of Mr. Paulson’s insurance soared. One of his funds rose more than 500% that year. Then in 2008, he shorted financial shares, or wagered that they would fall in price, profiting again when these companies collapsed.
And are there any investing skills that average investors can learn from his success? Yes. There are no guarantees, of course, but the success of Mr. Paulson and a few other underdog investors lends encouragement to individuals trying to compete with Wall Street’s pros.
Here are eight investing lessons of Mr. Paulson’s $20 billion gamble, the greatest trade in financial history:
1. Don’t Rely on the Experts
Many investors lost big in 2007 and 2008 as housing crumbled and the stock market tumbled. But no one lost more than commercial and investment banks caught with toxic mortgage-related securities. These bankers were the very same ones who created these investments, and Wall Street’s top analysts had vouched for their safety, even as Mr. Paulson and others bet against the investments.
Lesson: When Wall Street is wheeling out its latest can’t-miss product, be skeptical.
2. Bubble Trouble
Some academics argue that financial markets have become more efficient. But a rash of financial bubbles in recent years — including housing, energy, technology and Asian currencies — suggests that markets are becoming harder to navigate, and are more prone to overshooting. Today, investors of all sizes read the same articles, watch the same business-television programs and chase the same hot tips. They invariably head for the exits at the same time.
Lesson: Have an exit strategy — and cash to cushion any tumble.
3. Focus on Debt Markets
Most investors track the ups and downs of the stock market but have only a vague sense of moves in debt markets. That’s a mistake. Early signs of trouble were seen in sophisticated markets that don’t get much limelight, like the subprime-mortgage bond market. These problems eventually felled the housing and stock markets, and the overall economy, a set of falling dominos that Mr. Paulson and his team correctly anticipated.
Lesson: Debt markets can do a better job predicting problems than stock markets.
4. Master New Investments
Mr. Paulson scored huge profits by buying credit-default swaps, a derivative investment that serves as insurance on debt. When risky mortgage bonds tumbled in value, Mr. Paulson’s insurance soared. But many experts were flummoxed by CDS contracts or shied away from educating themselves about these relatively new investments.
Mr. Paulson and his team had no experience with CDS contracts. But they put the time into learning about them.
Lesson: Educate yourself about the range of exchange-traded funds being introduced, some of which can play a valuable role in a portfolio.
5. Insurance Pays
A number of investors worried about a bursting of the housing market, but few did much about it, even though insurance, such as CDS contracts, at the time were selling at dirt-cheap prices. Out-of-the-money put contracts — options that pay off only if the market tumbles — also were trading at reasonable levels. As cheap as this insurance was, many pros ignored it.
Lesson: Don’t underestimate the value of a safety net, such as put options.
6. Experience Counts
Some of the biggest winners in the meltdown were middle-aged investors dismissed by some as past their prime. But they had experienced past market downturns, while some of the bankers and analysts caught flat-footed knew only good times.
Lesson: A historical perspective can be a valuable tool.
7. Don’t Fall in Love
With an Investment. In early 2009, Mr. Paulson became more bullish about the banks and financial companies that he had wagered against in 2008, after determining that these companies had improved their balance sheets. The moves resulted in profits this year.
Lesson: Even the greatest trade doesn’t last forever.
8. Luck Helps
In early 2006, Mr. Paulson determined that housing was in trouble and set out to profit from the impending fall. But some housing experts already had determined that real estate was overpriced; others had wagered against housing but could no longer stomach their losses. Just months after Mr. Paulson placed his historic trade, U.S. housing prices began to fall.
Lesson: Don’t risk too much in any one trade, even one that seems like a sure thing.
US President Obama visits China (Pictures)
Nov 19th
Obama tours the Forbidden City.
Obama tours the Forbidden City.
Obama tours the Forbidden City.
Obama tours the Forbidden City.
……
Obama in Great Hall of the People.
Obama talk with the Chinese youth in Shanghai.
Obama visits Great Wall in Nov, 18.
Obama visits Great Wall in Nov, 18.
Obama and Wen Jiabao.
Obama leaves Beijing.
Air Force One.
Metallgesellschaft’s Case
Nov 19th
Hi David,
I went thru this case and also your and Jacks discussion on the same but i could not get 1 simple concept clear. can you pls help me with a simple example
1) MG had Long position in short term futures.
2) Markets went into Contango.
3) Now if MG is in a long position he is locked it at a price say 20$.
4) Market goes into contango i.e futures price is above spot lets assume now its 25$.
5) Then actually MG is gaining as it had bought futures at 20$ and now the same is 25$
How is MG losing? Can you pls explain me in layman terms with the same example as i gave as i got utterly confused after i went thru the earlier thread.
Thx & Rgds
Amit
Bank Fees You Don’t Know You’re Paying
Nov 19th
by David K. Randall
Friday, September 25, 2009provided by
Banks are cutting overdraft fees, but there are other hidden charges.
In the wake of the uproar over bank fees charged to debit card holders–and the looming threat of congressional action–banking giants Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have announced drastic changes to their overdraft policies.
What banking customers might be missing is that debit card overdraft fees are the tip of the iceberg. Banks nickel and dime their customers in numerous other ways that can easily cost the average person $100 or more per year. Adding insult, many of the fees are poorly disclosed and levied regardless of any action the customer does–or doesn’t–take.
"There is a long list of fees that people pay that doesn’t require any type of acknowledgment on the part of the consumer," said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. Here are five major areas of hidden bank revenues.
Balance Transfer Fees
Banks commonly mail out ads pitching low interest rates for customers willing to transfer credit card balances from another institution. What many don’t advertise is that there is often a balance transfer fee of between 3% and 5% hidden in the fine print.
"If you’re transferring a balance from a card with a rate of 15% to a card with a rate or 13%, but you’re paying a 3% admission fee, you’re not saving any money," McBride said. Moving a balance of $5,000 from one credit card to another with a slightly lower interest rate could result in a $150 charge being added to the balance that you owe and pay interest on.
If you’re thinking about switching to a card with a lower interest rate, ask the bank what type of transfer fees it charges. These fees are separate from the annual interest rate that you pay.
Cash Advances
Consumers who take cash advances from their credit cards will also be hit with a transaction fee that they might not have been expecting. As with balance transfers, cash advances often come with a fee that ranges between 3% and 5%. That’s not all.
"If cash advances weren’t costly enough with interest rates in the high teens, there’s no grace period, and the interest clock starts ticking right away," McBride said.
Foreign Currency Surcharges
Using a debit or credit card while traveling overseas is wonderfully convenient. Perhaps too convenient. Over the past few years, banks have commonly started charging a 3% fee for any purchases made in foreign currencies. That means if you go to Paris on vacation and buy presents in euros, the charges will show up on your statement in dollars–with the 3% fees built in.
If you plan to use a debit or credit card abroad, consider opening an account with Capital One or Charles Schwab, whose foreign currency exchange fees run as low as 1%. If you are going to be taking money out of an ATM in another country (another place where banks ring up additional charges), Wells Fargo and PNC offer some of the lowest fees.
Balance Requirements
Many banks offer to waive monthly service fees on checking or savings accounts if customers maintain a collective balance above a set minimum. Dip below it, and you could be hit with a charge of $8 or more every time your balance falls below the minimum.
"These requirements are really a lose-lose proposition," McBride says. "If you don’t maintain the balance, you get socked with a fee. If you do maintain it, you have the opportunity costs of stranding money in a low-yielding account when you could be earning a more competitive return in an online savings account."
ATM Fees
Bank of America and other banks now charge customers from other banks $3 to withdraw money from its ATMs. But at least you have to agree to pay the fee at the terminal. What some customers may not realize that is that their own bank often levies a $2 fee every time they use a competitor’s ATM as well. Adding up all the bank fees, it may cost $5 to take out $20 of your own money. That’s a 25% commission, and the bank didn’t have to do a thing.
Copyrighted, Forbes.com. All rights reserved.
conversion factor
Nov 19th
Hi David,
Could you pls clarify this question? I wonder why “as yields lower than 6% imply that the CF for long-term bonds is lower than otherwise. This will tend to favor bonds with high conversion factors, or shorter bonds”? what is the relationship between CF and maturity?
Thanks.
The Chicago Board of Trade has reduced the notional coupon of its Treasury
futures contracts from 8% to 6%. Which of the following statements are
likely to be true as a result of the change?
a. The cheapest-to-deliver status will become more unstable if yields hover
near the 6% range.
b. When yields fall below 6%, higher-duration bonds will become cheapest
to deliver, whereas lower-duration bonds will become cheapest to deliver
when yields range above 6%.
c. The 6% coupon would decrease the duration of the contract, making it
a more effective hedge for the long end of the yield curve.
d. There will be no impact at all by the change.
a. The goal of the CF is to equalize differences between various deliverable bonds.
In the extreme, if we discounted all bonds using the current term structure, the
CF would provide an exact offset to all bond prices, making all of the deliverable
bonds equivalent. This reduction from 8% to 6% notional reflects more closely
recent interest rates. It will lead to more instability in the CTD, which is exactly
the effect intended. Answer b) is not correct, as yields lower than 6% imply that
the CF for long-term bonds is lower than otherwise. This will tend to favor bonds
with high conversion factors, or shorter bonds. Also, a lower coupon increases the
duration of the contract, so c) is not correct.
Core Reading Versus AIMS
Nov 19th
Hi all,
Are the core readings supposed to exactly mirror the reading lists given in the AIMS?
I purchased – and subsequently read – the printed copy of the Core readings for the Level 1 exam. However, looking through the AIMS I can see a lot of extra readings that weren’t provided in the Core reading pack. In particular, the Financial Markets & Products AIMS lists chapters 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 of Hull!! These were not provided in the Core readings pack – and translates into a lot of extra reading in very little time!
Thanks,
John
Regression
Nov 19th
Consider 3 random variables X,Y,Z Suppose corr(x,y) =0.4 and corr(z,y)=0.3 which of the following statements is true?
a) corr(x,z) cannot be negative.
b) corr(x,z) has to be larger than 0.3
c) corr(x,z) cannot be negative
d) none of the above.
can u throw some light on this question.
thanks and do reply soon.
FRM L1 exam format
Nov 19th
Hi there,
I have a question about the exam format for the L1.
I noticed that there will be 2 sessions (morning and afternoon), will this sessions have different chapters? (ie. morning session covers Foundation of RM and QA, afternoon session covers M&P and Valuation) or they are all mixed and have same format for the morning and afternoon.
Thanks in advance,
Jason
Recent Comments